April-June 2023 (Q1FY24) was a mixed quarter for India's top family-owned business groups. Three of the big five in terms of revenue reported a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) decline in combined net sales and two saw a Y-o-Y fall in net profits. Combined net sales of all listed companies in the five groups were up just 2.2 per cent Y-o-Y at Rs 6.6 trillion in the quarter, down sharply from the 10.3 per cent in the March 2023 quarter (Q4FY23) and 42.8 per cent in Q1FY23.
However, the second quarter of FY24 is expected to be muted, and, with that, the hope of double-digit growth is now being pushed to FY25. However, analysts are expecting the momentum in the closure of record total contract values (TCVs) will continue, as has been the case over the last two quarters.
There has been a sharp recovery in the headline corporate earnings in the April-June 2023 quarter (Q1FY24), after a dismal showing by early bird companies. The combined net profit of the 983 listed companies that have declared their quarterly results, so far, was up 64.7 per cent year-on-year to record a high of Rs 2.68 trillion in the first quarter, but growth in earnings remained lopsided because most of the incremental gains came from a handful of companies. Moreover, the quarterly numbers showed a continued slowdown in revenue growth.
Exports of 19 major commodities, including petroleum products, coal and marine items, saw growth in terms of volume during April 2023-February 2024, even as they witnessed contraction in value terms during the same period. Government officials said the rise in export volume despite a decline in value implies that these commodities show a stronger market demand.
Bengaluru-based United Breweries (UBL), makers of Kingfisher beer, is eying strong growth in the premium beer segment, driven by changing consumer preferences towards premiumisation. "Across categories, premiumisation is taking place as people are looking for better choices and beer is no different. "People are upgrading to better beer and newer brands. We have a good offering of premium brands - Kingfisher's premium variants are Ultra and Ultra Max," Vikram Bahl, chief marketing officer (CMO), UBL, said in an interview.
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday raised India's growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.2 per cent, from 7 per cent projected in March, saying elevated consumer confidence will drive spending, besides increased investments. In June update to its global economic outlook report, Fitch said it expects inflation to decline to 4.5 per cent by end of this year and RBI to cut policy interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.25 per cent.
India's information technology (IT) sector will witness subdued hiring in 2023-24 as macro uncertainties impact demand environment, with clients either taking a pause on spend or stopping discretionary spend, say human resource experts. To begin with, unlike earlier years, the three large IT players TCS, HCLTech, and Wipro have not provided any new hiring targets for the financial year. And Wipro has said that its hiring target will depend on the demand environment.
Under the National Apprenticeship Promotion Scheme, close to 1 million apprentices will be trained in FY24.
Fundraising via the initial public offering (IPO) route by companies may touch Rs 1 trillion in financial year 2024-25 (FY25), according to a recent note by Pantomath Group - a mid-market investment bank. During the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), 76 companies tapped the markets through mainboard IPOs, Pantomath said, raising nearly Rs 62,862 crore. This is a 21 per cent rise compared to FY23, the note added.
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Retail investors now own a larger share of smallcap companies than they did a year ago, thanks to their conviction in mutual fund (MF) schemes focused on this segment. Data from Capitaline shows that MFs' average holding in the National Stock Exchange Nifty Smallcap 250 Index stood at 9 per cent at the end of the October-December quarter of 2023-24 (FY24), up from 7.76 per cent in the same quarter of 2022-23.
Sustaining the current 19.5 per cent growth rate in income and corporate tax collections may be difficult in next fiscal year given headwinds from a slowing world and high base effect, a government source said. Net direct taxes, which are made up of personal income tax and the tax levied on corporate earnings, have seen a record growth in current fiscal year, topping up the numbers projected in the Budget. The expected lower nominal GDP growth in 2023-24 on the back of threats of global recession could impact income tax collection, the government source told reporters ahead of the presentation of Union Budget 2023-24 on February 1.
The market responded positively to the Q1 results of oil marketing companies (OMCs), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) despite numbers being weaker than consensus. BPCL's reported gross refining margin (GRM) was in line at $7.9 per barrel (bbl) in Q1FY25, which implies marketing margin stood at Rs 4.8 per litre. Standalone profit after tax or PAT at Rs 3,000 crore was down versus consensus due to under-recoveries in LPG business.
ICICI Bank reported good results for the October-December 2023 quarter (Q3), with 24 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in profit after tax (PAT). Net interest margin (NIM) dropped 10 bps quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) to 4.43 per cent. Credit growth was at 19 per cent Y-o-Y (4 per cent Q-o-Q), while deposit growth was at 19 per cent Y-o-Y (3 per cent Q-o-Q).
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Public-sector enterprise stocks have seen a good run thus far in 2023-24 (FY24), with the S&P BSE PSU Index surging by over 26 per cent during the period, compared to an 11 per cent increase in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex.
In mid-March this year, the finance ministry asked state-run banks to review their gold loan portfolio for the two-year period between January 1, 2022, and January 31, 2024. This business had grown at a fast clip. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data has it that it grew 15 per cent to Rs 1 trillion in FY24. Now, in recent times, any kind of exuberance in financial services has seen the authorities swoop down - be it pushing the lines on governance or unsecured credit.
The Union government's finances witnessed significant improvement in August after a stressful first four months of the current fiscal year. India's gross tax revenue, comprising both direct and indirect taxes, for the first five months of 2023-24 surged 16.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 11.8 trillion. During the April-July period, gross tax revenue increased by a mere 2.8 per cent compared to the Budget Estimate of 12.1 per cent growth for FY24.
Tata Communications has seen analyst upgrades after reporting Q3FY24 results. The biggest factor is the visible signs of a turnaround in its new acquisition, Kaleyra. The consolidated revenue grew 16 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 5,630 crore led by 15 per cent Q-o-Q improvement in the data segment.
'Indian investors have always been debt-heavy but with growing financial awareness they are getting comfortable with equities.'
Fresh order wins for capital goods and industrial companies may have seen a major slump due to Lok Sabha polls in the first quarter of the current financial year (Q1FY25). At the same time, revenue and profit growth trajectory is expected to have stayed the course, according to brokerage firms. Elara Capital, Motilal Oswal, and InCred Equities expect this sector universe to report a 12- 21 per cent growth in revenue, 21 -36 per cent growth in Ebitda and 24-38 per cent growth in profit on a year-on-year (Y-oY) basis.
The market capitalisation of listed companies on the NSE surpassed $5 trillion (Rs 416.57 trillion) on Thursday on a day when the Nifty 50 index touched an all-time high of 22,993.60. The Nifty 500 index also touched an all-time high of 21,505.25 on Thursday indicating that growth in the equity market is not restricted to only the large capitalised stocks, a statement by NSE said.
India's three-wheeler exports, which have been on a downhill trajectory over the past few years, are showing no signs of recovery in FY25, with key markets like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Egypt witnessing subdued demand. In May, the country's exports plummeted 11.3 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y).
Shares of Bajaj Finance sprinted 4.7 per cent to Rs 7,732 per share on the BSE in Thursday's (January 4) intra-day trade as the non-bank finance company's (NBFC's) December quarter business update reflected minimal impact of the Reserve Bank of India's ban on two of its lending products. The shares, eventually, ended 4.4 per cent higher at Rs 7,710 per share as against 0.69 per cent gain in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex. The NBFC's asset under management (AUM) topped the Rs 3-trillion-mark at the end of December 2023, swelling by roughly Rs 20,700 crore (35 per cent year-on-year) to hit Rs 3.11 trillion-mark.
Analysts assert that Vedanta Group's plan to demerge India-listed Vedanta Limited into six listed entities will not resolve the debt problem of its promoter entity, Vedanta Resources (VRL). They suggest that additional asset sales or stake sales by promoters will be necessary to repay the debt. Vedanta is already considering the divestment of its iron-steel division and its copper plant.
Even as banks and finance companies are reporting record-high earnings, their weighting in the benchmark National Stock Exchange Nifty50 Index has seen a downward trajectory. Investors expect a stronger performance from other sectors in the new year. Currently, banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) companies collectively hold a weighting of 34.5 per cent, down from 36.7 per cent at the end of December 2022 and a record high of 40.6 per cent at the end of December 2019. This represents the sector's lowest weighting in the index since December 2021 when it stood at 33.7 per cent.
Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) is India's largest engineering and manufacturing enterprise, operating across energy, industry, and infrastructure sectors. The investment path for the stock is based on a large order backlog, continued strong order inflows, and rising power demand, which should push demand for BHEL's equipment and services. BHEL has historically held over 70 per cent market share in power projects.
Despite the rally in equities over the last few years, India, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, is still in early stages of an equity cult. Any changes to the capital gains tax for equities - both long-term and short-term - in Budget 2024 scheduled to be announced on July 23, he believes, can trigger a bigger correction that what the markets witnessed post the Lok Sabha election outcome on June 4 that saw the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lose majority, though it was able to form the government with the help of coalition partners.
Passenger vehicle wholesales crossed the 10-lakh mark for the first time ever in the June quarter riding on the back of robust demand for utility vehicles, industry body SIAM said on Friday. Total dispatches of passenger vehicles in the first quarter stood at 10,26,006 units, up 3 per cent as compared with 996,565 units in April-June FY24. Utility vehicle sales rose 18 per cent to 645,794 units in the first quarter as against 547,194 units in the year-ago period.
Large Indian IT services companies are expected to report "muted" sequential show in a traditionally strong second quarter, as macroeconomic challenges continue to weigh on global discretionary spending, say market watchers. The big earnings week for tech heavyweights is up ahead, with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) scheduled to announce its results on October 11, and both Infosys and HCL Technologies on October 12. Wipro is slated to declare its Q2FY24 results next week, on October 18.
While analysts assessed One97 Communications (Paytm) Q1FY24 results as in-line with guidance, the market was disappointed and the stock fell by around 5 per cent. Paytm reported a net loss of Rs 360 crore, but revenue grew 39 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 2,340 crore. It was supported by strong growth in gross merchandising value (GMV), higher disbursements and the addition of subscription devices.
'In life insurance, it is about creating distribution capacity and solutions for customers. We are constantly working on that.'
India's gain will be an additional business of $300 million to $400 million per month if 10-11% of Bangladesh's export is diverted to Indian hubs like Tiruppur.
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
Since the last nine years, gold investors have made money each year, while gains in silver have been consistent only in the last five years.
Retail companies are expected to witness a tepid strong same-store sales growth (SSSG) expansion in the third quarter (October - December) of the current financial year (Q3FY24) on the back of subdued sales in the festival season. The third quarter of the financial year typically witnesses higher sales since it coincides with the festival season. This time around, weak customer sentiment has dragged down SSSG.
HDFC Bank has been conscious in not accepting high-cost deposits, which have resulted in slower growth in October-December, said Sashidhar Jagdishan, managing director and chief executive officer, during an interaction with Goldman Sachs recently. He said during times of tight liquidity, short terms hardened, as was the case in October-December. "Not only did we participate, but we also gave up which came up for maturity," he said.
Raising toast to 25 successful years, India's largest wine maker Sula Vineyard is eyeing a sustained double-digit growth in revenue over the next five years, buoyed by growth in the premium and elite categories and expansion of its new ranges. It was during Covid that the vineyards shifted focus to its own brands and pivoted towards growing the premium and elite segment of the market.
Singapore government's sovereign wealth fund Temasek is looking to invest $10 billion in India during the next three years, Ravi Lambah, Temasek's head of India and strategic initiatives, said.
'Interim Budget has ignited the entrepreneurial spirit.'
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